After Bitcoin prices plunged below the previous resistance level of $6000 on 14th November, the graph has been downwards ever since.
While a lot of speculation was going around the idea that Bitcoin would find support at $4500, bitcoin bottomed out at around $3668 on November 25th. Since then, bitcoin has been on an upward journey and is currently trading at a price of $4133 at the time of writing, according to coinmarketcap.
This is not the first time Bitcoin has lost more than 80% since its peak.A similar trend had been observed in 2015 as well and that’s why people are now showing a lot of interest in how that decline ended.
Bitcoin had fallen 43% to $178 in the first two weeks of 2015 before recovering. Similarly, starting 14th Nov 2018, Bitcoin lost 45% of its value before starting its recovery. The trend observed in 2015 & 2018 has been very similar.
Rob Sluymer, technical strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors says, “In contrast to bounces that have developed through 2018, weekly RSI [relative strength index] is now at levels not seen since BTC’s last bear market low in early 2015 and BTC is showing very early evidence of responding to its long-term uptrend after three major downside moves through 2018.”
Tom Lee, who is a colleague Sluymer’s, had predicted that bitcoin would touch $25k levels by the end of the year before he dropped his target to $15000. But if what happened in 2015, repeats, then Lee’s prediction may turn out to be accurate. Bitcoin had oscillated in a tight trading range for over six months in 2015, before breaking out and rising by 1,000% to reach an all-time high of $20,000.
But others like Jani Ziedins of the CrackedMarket blog, who had accurately predicted the bitcoin selloff above $8000, are stating that they expect the rise above $3,500 to be short-lived.
Jani said, “Most likely this relief rally will carry us back above $5k over the next week or two. But this is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce and bitcoin is still not investible for the long term. ”
Sluymer shared similar views, “Our expectation is that BTC is in the very early stages of establishing a multi-quarter bottoming process that is likely to extend well into mid-2019.”
So, if you were thinking that that Bitcoin’s bottom is done & dusted, the experts don’t share the same view.
A few months ago, when Bitcoin held the $6000 for a few months, people were starting to get very optimistic. They were rooting for Bitcoin to soar higher. In fact, there was even a phase where Bitcoin was the most stable since its invention ever.
But slow & steadily, all the hopes came crashing down as Bitcoin broke what was thought to be a high-resistance level for months.
When it comes to the long-term future, no expert can tell us what it has in store for Bitcoin. The one thing we can be sure of is this: We’re going to have to wait it out.